Research

Investment research can utilize NCREIF data and analytical tools to support more informed decisions about real estate investment strategy, portfolio construction and asset positioning.

- Mark Roberts, Managing Director, Global Head of Research and Strategy, Deutsche Asset Management Alternatives Real Assets

Facilitating commercial real estate research is central to NCREIF’s mission as its provision of data products and analytical tools to the investment and academic community allows for improved understanding of the performance of this asset class. NCREIF supports the investment community with guidance on using its detailed property database and portfolio of fund indices to further thought leadership in the industry. Academics are encouraged to utilize NCREIF information to advance real estate research literature. 

NCREIF Insights

PDF (198 kB)

Downward Trend in NPI Returns Ends; Has Performance Stabilized?

Sara Rutledge, NCREIF Director of Research. Published in the Second Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Jun 30, 2017
PDF (686 kB)

Lower, Long‐Term Trend GDP Growth Implications for Commercial Real Estate Performance

Sara Rutledge, NCREIF Director of Research. NCREIF Insights June 2017.

Published Date: Jun 19, 2017
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Institutional Real Estate: Healthy Income, Weak Appreciation

Sara Rutledge, NCREIF Director of Research. Published in the First Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Mar 31, 2017
PDF (1 mB)

Modest Total Returns in 2016 with Values at a New High

Sara Rutledge, NCREIF Director of Research Published in the Fourth Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report

Published Date: Dec 31, 2016
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Commercial Real Estate Performance Moderation Continues

Sara Rutledge, NCREIF Director of Research. Published in the Third Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Sep 30, 2016
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Using Brinson Attribution to Explain the Differences Between Time-Weighted (TWR) and Money-Weighted (IRR) Returns

Published in the Summer 2016 Journal of Portfolio Management, this paper uses Brinson attribution to explore and explain the differences between the TWR and IRR for measuring investment performance. The TWR is an industry standard for performance reporting and lends itself nicely to liquid investments, although an IRR can be a more appropriate fit for alternative asset classes and some investment structures. Author Joe D’Alessandro.

Published Date: Aug 01, 2016
PDF (670 kB)

RERI Summary - Which Factors Determine Liquidity Across US Metropolitan Office Markets

NCREIF Director of Research, Sara Rutledge, provides an overview of this 2016 Real Estate Research Institute-funded research paper and its implications for investors.

Published Date: Jul 01, 2016
PDF (408 kB)

New NCREIF Indices – New Insights: Part 2

NCREIF Consultants Mike Young and Jeff Fisher provide a follow-up to January’s article on three new metrics formally released by NCREIF during the first quarter of 2015 with an in depth discussion on the methodolgy and use of the Free Cash Flow Yield (FCFY) and Capital Expense Ratio (CXR).

Published Date: Jun 01, 2015
PDF (359 kB)

New NCREIF Indices - New Insights

NCREIF Consultants Mike Young and Jeff Fisher introduce three new indicators, the Market Value Index (MVI), Free Cash Flow Yield (FCFY), and the Capital Expense Ratio (CXR).

Published Date: Jan 02, 2015
PDF (358 kB)

Distributions over Time

Discussion of the distribution and property type composition of properties in the NPI over three time periods – 2004, 2009 and 2014.

Published Date: Oct 01, 2014
PDF (306 kB)

NPI-Plus

Discussion of the composition and returns for NPI-Plus, which consists of non-NPI properties classified in the “Other” property type, such as senior living, self-storage and parking.

Published Date: Jun 01, 2013
PDF (267 kB)

Why Do ODCE and NPI Returns Differ?

Discussion of ten main reasons the core fund-level benchmark (NFI-ODCE) and property-level index (NPI) differ in methodology and composition.

Published Date: Sep 01, 2012
PDF (229 kB)

Is Core Over-Valued?

NCREIF Consultant, Jeff Fisher, explores pricing and income data for core and non-core NPI properties to shed light on valuations in the recovery from the Great Recession.

Published Date: Jun 01, 2012
PDF (244 kB)

Open-Ended Fund Indices

Comparison of the composition and performance of NFI-ODCE funds and non-ODCE open-end funds tracked for the NFI-OE.

Published Date: Dec 01, 2011
PDF (376 kB)

Cap Rate: Please Explain

Discussion on capitalization rate calculations available in the NCREIF database and how to interpret/apply each measure.

Published Date: Oct 01, 2011
PDF (208 kB)

Properties Returned to the Lender: Does it Matter?

During the Great Recession, some “underwater” properties were returned to their lender. This piece explores whether or not this practice was impactful to the NPI.

Published Date: Jul 01, 2011
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A Simplified Transactions Based Index (TBI) for NCREIF Production

David Geltner reviews the original TBI as it has been produced at MIT from 2006 through 2010, and explores a simplified average-price-based alternative version for possible NCREIF production and publication, including detailed operating instructions for such production.

Published Date: May 02, 2011
PDF (152 kB)

Note to Investors: In a Rising Market, New Acquisitions May Lag

NCREIF Executive Director, Doug Poutasse, examines NPI total returns by acquisition year cohorts and their relative performance to the overall NPI.

Published Date: Nov 01, 2007
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Member Contributions

PDF (118 kB)

Record Apartment Construction Slows Returns

Walter Page, Director of U.S. Research, CoStar Portfolio Strategy. Published in the Second Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Jun 30, 2017
PDF (122 kB)

Industrial: The Shining Star in Commercial Real Estate

Tim Wang, Ph.D., Director and Head of Investment Research, Clarion Partners. Published in the Second Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Jun 30, 2017
PDF (111 kB)

Office Sector: Taking it Down a Few Notches

Ryan Patap, Senior Associate, CBRE Global Investors. Published in the Second Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Jun 30, 2017
PDF (123 kB)

Store Closings Challenge the Retail Market

Del Kendall, Managing Director, Situs RERC. Published in the Second Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Jun 30, 2017
PDF (138 kB)

Stable Income, Lower Appreciation

William Pattison, Associate Director, MetLife Investment Management. Published in the Second Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Jun 30, 2017
PDF (83 kB)

Timberland Index Grows in Size

Evan Amano, Portfolio Analyst, Campbell Global. Published in the Second Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Jun 30, 2017
PDF (91 kB)

Institutional Investment in Farmland Continues to Grow as NFI Reaches Record Levels

Jamie Shen, Chief Investment Officer, Prudential Agricultural Investments. Published in the Second Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Jun 30, 2017
PDF (194 kB)

Seniors Housing Returns Moderate, But Continue to Outpace NPI

Beth Burnham Mace, Chief Economist, National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). Published in the First Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Mar 31, 2017
PDF (119 kB)

Apartments: Wide Range of Performance Across Subtypes and Geographies

Daniel Mahoney, Senior Vice President, LaSalle Investment Management. Published in the First Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Mar 31, 2017
PDF (122 kB)

Industrial

Adrienne D. Ortyl, AEW Research - Vice President, AEW Capital Management, L.P. Published in the First Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Mar 31, 2017
PDF (111 kB)

Office Sector: Healthy Yet Cautious

Franklin Yanofsky, Director and Kevin Deegan, Director, National Valuation Consultants, Inc. Published in the First Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Mar 31, 2017
PDF (123 kB)

Retail: Quality and Necessity in a Changing Landscape

Joshua Kaye, Senior Vice President and Brian Thomas, Senior Analyst, Investors Diversified Realty, LLC. Published in the First Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Mar 31, 2017
PDF (279 kB)

How Low Can You Go? ODCE Trending Lower.

Kurt Edwards, Director, UBS Realty Investors. Published in the First Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Mar 31, 2017
PDF (84 kB)

The Drum Set

Mark Woloszyn, Portfolio Analyst, BTG Pactual Timberland Investment Group, LLC. Published in the First Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Mar 31, 2017
PDF (90 kB)

Some Farmland Returns Drifting Lower, While other Farmland Types are Increasing

James B. McCandless, Head of Real Estate - Farmland Managing Director, UBS Farmland Investors LLC. Published in the First Quarter 2017 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Mar 31, 2017
PDF (117 kB)

Apartment Sector: Secular Tailwinds Meet Cyclical Headwinds

Michael Gately, Head of Research, Barings Real Estate Advisers. Published in the Fourth Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Dec 31, 2016
PDF (179 kB)

Is Industrial's Time in the Sun Here to Last?

Mike Miles, Principal and Chad Phillips, Managing Director - Guggenheim Real Estate. Published in the Fourth Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Dec 31, 2016
PDF (111 kB)

How Do You View the Office Market - Leader or Laggard?

Mel Morgan Jr., MAI, Vice President, Washington Capital Management. Published in the Fourth Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Dec 31, 2016
PDF (122 kB)

Retail Returns: In a Slump

Karen Van Hamme, Director, Commercial Real Estate Research and Arthur Jones, Director, Commercial Real Estate Research - Principal Real Estate Investors. Published in the Fourth Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Dec 31, 2016
PDF (65 kB)

Changes Aplenty, NFI-ODCE Holds Steady

Kevin Howley, Managing Director, Real Estate Portfolio Management - Alternatives, RREEF Management L.L.C., Deutsche Asset Management. Published in the Fourth Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Dec 31, 2016
PDF (83 kB)

Strong Fundamentals Fuel Active Transactions Despite a Challenging Decade

Mary Ellen Aronow, Senior Forest Economist, Hancock Natural Resource Group. Published in the Fourth Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Dec 31, 2016
PDF (88 kB)

Fresh Annual Produce and Most Permanent Crops Finish Strong in 2016

Joseph Van Wingerden, Associate, Gladstone Land Corporation. Published in the Fourth Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Dec 31, 2016
PDF (98 kB)

Seniors Housing Returns Moderate, but Continue to Outpace NPI

Beth Burnham Mace, Chief Economist, National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). Published in the Third Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Sep 30, 2016
PDF (117 kB)

US Multifamily Outlook

Andrew Gibbs, CFA, Senior Analyst, Property Multi-Manager, Aberdeen Asset Management. Published in the Third Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Sep 30, 2016
PDF (121 kB)

2016 Q3 Industrial Performance

Alex Symes, Vice President, BlackRock Real Assets. Published in the Third Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Sep 30, 2016
PDF (110 kB)

Q3 2016 Office Market Performance

Brandon S. Millen, Associate Director, Investment Reporting and Performance Measurement, Intercontinental Real Estate Corporation. Published in the Third Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Sep 30, 2016
PDF (123 kB)

On-line Retailing Benefits Bricks and Mortar Retail!

Jerry Gisclair, MAI MRICS, National Client Services Director, Colliers International Valuation & Advisory Services. Published in the Third Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Sep 30, 2016
PDF (65 kB)

One More Time: Slower, Still Strong

Douglas Poutasse, Head of Strategy and Research, Bentall Kennedy (U.S.) LP. Published in the Third Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Sep 30, 2016
PDF (83 kB)

Throw on Another Ring

Steven G. Hawkes, Timberland Region Manager - Mid-Atlantic, LandVest and Joseph L. Taggart, Executive Vice President, Timberland Marketing & Natural Resource Consulting, LandVest. Published in the Third Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Sep 30, 2016
PDF (89 kB)

Permanent Cropland Leads the Way / Farmland Assets Triple in Past Five Years!

Martin Davies, President, Westchester Group Investment Management, Inc. Published in the Third Quarter 2016 NCREIF Performance Report.

Published Date: Sep 30, 2016
PDF (126 kB)

New Note to Investors: In a Rising Market, New Acquisitions May Lag, at Least in Year‐One

TIAA Global Real Estate's Senior Director, Fabiana Lotito, explores if newly acquired product, in a rapidly rising market, will tend to lag as they generally price at the top of market.

Published Date: Jul 01, 2015
PDF (353 kB)

Making Sense of Counterintuitive Results in NPI Data Analysis

Jeff Bean and Richard Kleinman of LaSalle Investment Management discuss how custom analysis of the NCREIF property database can occasionally produce counter-intuitive results that are not the outcome of errors in the query or data, but statistical quirks.

Published Date: Apr 01, 2014
PDF (195 kB)

Economic and Demographic Characteristics of the ODCE Index

This paper examines the NCREIF-Open End Diversified Core Equity Index’s (ODCE) exposure to different employment sectors through its geographic allocation. Authors and contributors from LaSalle Investment Management include: Jeff Bean, Bill Maher, Richard Kleinman, Daniel Mahoney

Published Date: Feb 01, 2013
PDF (169 kB)

Vintage Year Returns Higher in Gateway Markets Over Past Decade

Nathan Kane of LaSalle Investment Management compares vintage year returns for core properties between the six 'gateway markets' and the rest of the NCREIF universe between 2000 and 2011.

Published Date: May 01, 2012
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Academic Papers

PDF (368 kB)

Real Estate Returns by Strategy: Have Value-Added and Opportunistic Funds Pulled Their Weight?

Working paper. An empirical examination, based on the 17-year period examined, indicates that the net investment returns from indices of value-add and opportunistic funds have – on a risk-adjusted Basis – under-performed the net returns available from an index of core funds. Author Joseph L. Pagliari, University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Published Date: Sep 06, 2016
PDF (393 kB)

New NCREIF Value Index and Operations Measures

This paper introduces three new and refined series derived from NCREIF property data: the Market Value Index (MVI), Free Cash Flow Yield (FCFY), and Capital Expense Ratio (CXR). While the NPI was designed to measure the risk and returns of the real estate asset class, these series optimize the property-level data in the NCREIF database to provide better indications of real estate value changes and operating performance. Authors Michael S. Young, Jeffrey D. Fisher, and Joseph D’Alessandro.

Published Date: Aug 28, 2016
PDF (958 kB)

Efficient Capital Market with Predictable Returns

This RERI funded paper tests the hypothesis that investors’ ex ante discount rates help predict ex post investment returns and ex post investment risk. Author Liang Peng.

Published Date: Feb 01, 2016
PDF (680 kB)

A New Method to Estimate Risk and Return of Commercial Real Estate Assets

This RERI funded paper builds on existing methods to estimate abnormal performance of real estate assets from cash flows to strengthen the position that open-end core real estate funds earn high returns. Authors Jin Man Lee, James D. Shilling, and Charles Wurtzebach.

Published Date: Jan 01, 2016
PDF (827 kB)

Which Factors Determine Liquidity Across US Metropolitan Office Markets?

This RERI funded paper seeks to identify the causes of market-specific transaction activity and liquidity risks across US metropolitan office markets. Authors Steven Devaney, Pat McAllister, and Anupam Nanda.

Published Date: Jan 01, 2015
PDF (332 kB)

Commercial Real Estate Price Volatility: Credit Policy vs. Property Market

This RERI funded paper investigates the disconnected roles of credit policy versus property market fundamentals in producing volatility for commercial real estate prices. Author Jonathon A. Wiley.

Published Date: Jan 01, 2015
PDF (392 kB)

The Impact of Capital Expenditures on Property Performance in Commercial Real Estate

Chinmoy Ghosh and Milena Petrova used a sample of 56,144 annual property observations during 2000 – 2011 to analyze the determinants of capital expenditures and their sub-components at the property level when accounting for uncertainty.

Published Date: Apr 01, 2014
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Do Value-added Real Estate Investments Add Value?

This paper compares the unlevered returns on value added and core investments of private commercial real estate equity in the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) database. This paper is authored by Liang Peng and Thomas Thibodeau

Published Date: Sep 03, 2013
PDF (514 kB)

Commercial Real Estate Market Property Level Capital Expenditures: An Options Analysis

This RERI funded paper tests the option pricing theory that capital improvement expenditures are positively linked with high or increasing market lease rates and the conjecture that capital expenditures are fully capitalized into market value. Authors Shaun A. Bond, James D. Shilling, and Charles H. Wurtzebach.

Published Date: Aug 29, 2013
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Finding Cap Rates: A Property Level Analysis of Commercial Real Estate Pricing

This RERI funded paper empirically analyzes how individual property cap rates are affected by macroeconomic conditions, local market conditions, and property characteristics and then analyzes what drives uncertainty in property cap rates. Author Liang Peng.

Published Date: Jan 26, 2013
PDF (888 kB)

Interest Rate and Investment under Uncertainty

This RERI funded paper empirically analyzes the non-monotonic influences that interest rate changes have on irreversible investment in income producing properties. Authors Liang Peng and Thomas G. Thibodeau.

Published Date: Apr 02, 2012
PDF (541 kB)

Real Estate Risk and Hedge Fund Returns

This RERI funded paper explores hedge funds’ investment strategy relating to their exposure to the real estate market by introducing a real estate source of variation to proxy for investments in the securitized and direct real estate markets. Authors Brent W. Ambrose and Charles Cao.

Published Date: Jan 29, 2012
PDF (172 kB)

Exploiting Property Characteristics in Commercial Real Estate Portfolio Allocation

This RERI funded paper uses a parametric portfolio to estimate optimal commercial real estate portfolio policies. Authors Alberto Plazzi, Walter Torous, and Rossen Valkanov.

Published Date: Apr 22, 2011
PDF (326 kB)

Funding Constraints and Commercial Real Estate Pricing Spirals

This RERI funded paper examines the relation between the availability of credit, market liquidity, and asset price movements in both public and private commercial real estate markets. Authors David C. Ling, Andy Naranjo, and Benjamin Scheick.

Published Date: Apr 01, 2011
PDF (188 kB)

How Accurate are Commercial Real Estate Appraisals?

This RERI funded paper provides new evidence on the performance measurement and reporting of commercial real estate returns by examining the accuracy of property appraisals prior to sale. Authors Susanne E. Cannon and Rebel A. Cole.

Published Date: Feb 06, 2011
PDF (378 kB)

Commercial Real Estate Rental Index: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Estimation

This RERI funded paper seeks to complement the NPI by developing a rental index based upon the property-level rent data collected by NCREIF. Authors Xudong An, Yongheng Deng, and Jeff Fisher.

Published Date: Feb 01, 2011
PDF (258 kB)

Market Timing and Investment Selection

This RERI funded paper explores fund managers’ abilities to generate abnormal profits in the real estate market, a market characterized by relative inefficiency compared to the publicly-traded market. Authors Yael V. Hochberg and Tobias Muhlhofer.

Published Date: Jan 01, 2011
PDF (196 kB)

Is Value-Add and Opportunistic Real Estate Investing Beneficial

This RERI funded paper investigates whether value-added and opportunistic real estate investing has resulted in appropriate risk-adjusted returns. Authors James D. Shilling and Charles Wurtzebach.

Published Date: Apr 11, 2010
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